2011–2025

The Nile and the Ethiopian dam

Ethiopia builds Africa's largest dam on the Blue Nile, and Egypt, which depends on the river for almost all its water, sees an existential threat.

Well established watersovereigntysecurityenvironment

Part of the story of Egypt and Ethiopia.

Most of the Nile water reaching Egypt comes from the Blue Nile, which rises in the Ethiopian highlands. A 1959 agreement between Egypt and Sudan divided the river’s flow between the two, giving Egypt 55.5 billion cubic metres a year; Ethiopia and other upstream countries were not party to it.

In April 2011, while Egypt was in the middle of its revolution, Ethiopia began building the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam near its border with Sudan, with a reservoir of about 74 billion cubic metres. Years of talks between Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan, including US-brokered negotiations in 2019–20, failed to agree rules for filling the reservoir and releasing water in droughts. Ethiopia began filling it in 2020 and formally inaugurated the dam on 9 September 2025. Egypt protested to the UN Security Council, calling the move unilateral and a violation of international law.

How much the dam will actually reduce Egypt’s water depends on rainfall and on how it is run, which is why the absence of an agreement worries Egyptians so much.

How it's seen
Egyptian view

Egypt gets about 97% of its renewable water from the Nile and is already water-poor. Filling and operating the dam without a binding agreement on droughts puts millions of livelihoods at the mercy of Ethiopia, against international law and historic rights. Egypt's government has called the dam an existential threat.

Ethiopian view

Most Ethiopians lacked electricity, and the Blue Nile rises in their highlands. Colonial-era treaties that gave Egypt and Sudan nearly all the river's water ignored Ethiopia. The dam, paid for largely by Ethiopians themselves, produces power, not irrigation, and delays the water rather than consuming it.

Why it matters today

Egypt

For Egyptians the Nile is not one issue among many; it is life. The dam crystallises an old fear of the river being controlled by others, and it is one of the few subjects on which government and public, rich and poor, Muslim and Christian, speak with almost one voice.

Ethiopia

For Ethiopians the dam is a national project of self-reliance, built largely with money from ordinary citizens and the diaspora, and a symbol of the right to use a river that rises in their own highlands. It is one of the few causes that unites people across ethnic and political divides, and Egyptian objections are widely heard as an attempt to hold on to colonial-era privileges.