A new arithmetic: the 2021 census and after
For the first time more people come from a Catholic background than a Protestant one, Sinn Féin becomes the largest party, and the "neither" middle keeps growing.
- Census 2021: Main Statistics for Northern Ireland (religion and national identity) — Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency (2022)
- Northern Ireland Life and Times Survey — ARK (Queen's University Belfast and Ulster University)
- Northern Ireland Elections — Nicholas Whyte, ARK
- ARINS/Irish Times North and South Surveys — ARINS (Royal Irish Academy and University of Notre Dame) and The Irish Times, Royal Irish Academy (2023)
The 2021 census, published in September 2022, found that 45.7% of people in Northern Ireland were Catholic or had been brought up Catholic, against 43.5% Protestant or other Christian. When Northern Ireland was created, Protestants outnumbered Catholics by roughly two to one. A further 9.3% had no religion and no religious upbringing, and the share is far higher among the young.
- Census 2021: Main Statistics for Northern Ireland (religion and national identity) — Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency (2022)
Asked about national identity, 31.9% said British only, 29.1% Irish only and 19.8% Northern Irish only, with the rest giving combinations. In the Northern Ireland Life and Times survey, the largest group, around four in ten in recent years, describes itself as neither unionist nor nationalist.
- Census 2021: Main Statistics for Northern Ireland (religion and national identity) — Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency (2022)
- Northern Ireland Life and Times Survey — ARK (Queen's University Belfast and Ulster University)
Politics followed. In the 2022 Assembly election Sinn Féin became the largest party for the first time, and the cross-community Alliance Party surged into third place. After a two-year DUP boycott over post-Brexit trade arrangements, Michelle O’Neill became the first nationalist First Minister in February 2024, a moment unimaginable in 1921.
- Northern Ireland Elections — Nicholas Whyte, ARK
- Northern Ireland — Encyclopaedia Britannica, Encyclopaedia Britannica
Yet surveys still show more people would vote to stay in the UK than to leave it, and many in the middle say they would decide on the detail.
- ARINS/Irish Times North and South Surveys — ARINS (Royal Irish Academy and University of Notre Dame) and The Irish Times, Royal Irish Academy (2023)
- Northern Ireland Life and Times Survey — ARK (Queen's University Belfast and Ulster University)
Demographic and political change shows the old unionist majority is gone, and it is time to plan for a referendum on Irish unity under the Good Friday Agreement.
- Census 2021: Main Statistics for Northern Ireland (religion and national identity) — Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency (2022)
- ARINS/Irish Times North and South Surveys — ARINS (Royal Irish Academy and University of Notre Dame) and The Irish Times, Royal Irish Academy (2023)
Catholic background does not mean support for unity: polls consistently show a majority for staying in the UK, and many Catholics are content with the Union. Talk of a border poll is destabilising.
- ARINS/Irish Times North and South Surveys — ARINS (Royal Irish Academy and University of Notre Dame) and The Irish Times, Royal Irish Academy (2023)
- Northern Ireland Life and Times Survey — ARK (Queen's University Belfast and Ulster University)
The old two-tribe headcount matters less than whether government works, health waiting lists fall and young people stay. Identity can be Northern Irish, or mixed, or simply not the point.
- Northern Ireland Life and Times Survey — ARK (Queen's University Belfast and Ulster University)
- Census 2021: Main Statistics for Northern Ireland (religion and national identity) — Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency (2022)
Why it matters today
The state built in 1921 to have a permanent Protestant and unionist majority no longer has one. That unsettles many unionists and encourages many nationalists, but the bigger story may be the growing number of people who refuse both labels, and on whom any future vote on the border would turn.